In "The best deals in the currency market of 2018" review the growth of ruble is promised
Strengthening the ruble?
Danske Bank experts forecast the growth of ruble in 2018
Experts from Danske Bank, which is Denmark's biggest commercial bank and one of the leading banks in Northern Europe, in their review "The best deals in the foreign exchange market of 2018" said that the Russian ruble could seriously rise in the very near future. And if now US dollar cost about 59 rubles at the rate of the Moscow Stock Exchange, at the beginning of 2018 one should expect a decrease in the rate to 52.5 rubles for one dollar.
Proceeding from this, analysts suggest selling dollars on the spot market - it promises a 12% profit! However, Danske Bank experts have separately made a reservation that it is necessary to immediately abandon such a strategy (stop-loss), if the dollar will rise to 61.85 rubles.
The experts base their conclusions on the fact that the correlation between the ruble exchange rate and oil quotations has recently weakened due to the purchases of currency by the Ministry of Finance. But one can expect a strengthening of the ruble in relation to oil prices soon. And in 2018 it will grow to $63 per barrel (average for the year), whereas in 2017 this figure was only $54.
Another factor called by Danish analysts as the reason for the changes in course, will be the growth of Russian economy. According to the forecast of Danske Bank, this year GDP will grow by 1.9%, and next year - by 2%. The only risks are that the regulator will reduce the key rate less aggressively than the market expects, the experts say.
Oleg Kuzmin, the chief economist of Renaissance Capital in Russia, however, doesn't share Danske Bank's optimism about the ruble. According to him, such a course is "impossible even with $80 for oil." And the reason for this will be the same purchases of currency by the Ministry of Finance. It is forecasted that in January the volume of purchases will increase and make 203.9 billion rubles, which is a record since February. This is what will hold the ruble seasonal strengthening in early 2018.